How to Tell If You're Actually in a Calorie Surplus

You've been "bulking" for months, you feel like you're in a surplus, and you're still 140 lb (63.5 kg). You can find out whether you really are in two weeks, and you don't need a theory. You need a notebook and a scale.

The short answer

You're in a surplus only if your weekly average weight is rising. Calculators give a starting guess; your scale measures the truth. Log what you eat for two weeks. If your weekly average weight doesn't move, your maintenance is about what you logged, and a surplus means eating above that number. If it's 2,300 calories, you're an ordinary guy eating ordinary food. If it's 3,200, you burn more than the formula says, and the fix is the same.

The test

1. Days 1 to 14: write down everything you eat and drink as you eat it, including oil, sauces and drinks. Not from memory at night.
2. Every morning: weigh yourself after the bathroom, before food. Same scale.
3. Day 15: average the weigh-ins for week 1 and for week 2. Add up your logged calories and divide by the days you logged.

Ignore single weigh-ins. Water and a heavy dinner move the scale a pound or two overnight. The weekly average is the signal.

Worked example

Take a 22-year-old man, 5'9" (175 cm), 140 lb (63.5 kg), lifting three days a week with a light-activity job. Bulky's calculator (Mifflin-St Jeor, then activity and training) puts his maintenance at about 2,290 calories a day. A bulk target for gaining about 1 lb (0.5 kg) a week comes out at about 2,840. The gap is about 550 a day.

He logs two weeks and averages 2,350 calories, with an average weight of 140.2 lb in week 1 and 140.0 lb in week 2. Flat.

That is not a mystery. 2,350 is within a rounding error of his 2,290 maintenance. He isn't a special case. He's eating at maintenance and getting maintenance. He's also 490 calories a day short of his bulk target, about 3,400 a week.

Now the other result. Suppose he'd logged 3,100 and stayed flat. Then his real maintenance is near 3,100, about 800 above the formula. That's possible (very high activity, constant fidgeting, a physical job the calculator didn't know about, or a log that's still missing things). Whichever it is, the move is identical: his bulk target is now about 3,600, not 2,840. The scale just told him which number to use.

What the weight trend tells you

• Flat, and logged calories close to the formula: you were undereating relative to a bulk. Add about 500 a day.
• Flat, and logged calories well above the formula: either you burn more than average or your log is missing things. Raise your target by the gap and keep logging.
• Rising about 0.5 to 1 lb (0.25 to 0.5 kg) a week: you're in a surplus. Keep going.
• Falling: you're eating less than you think. Look at the weekends, oil, and skipped meals first.

Photographs and logs miss things in both directions, so give the test the full two weeks before you change anything. A tablespoon of oil is about 120 calories and easy to forget. The label on your food beats any estimate.

Do this today

Start the log with your next meal. Don't change what you eat for the first week. You're measuring, not fixing. Change one thing only after you have the average.

If you eat in a surplus for a couple of months and still lose weight, or you're losing weight without trying, talk to a doctor. That's a different question than this one.

Where a photo helps

The weak point of the test is the log, because most people forget the oil, the second helping and the drink. Bulky reads calories, protein, carbs and fat from one photo of a meal and measures your day against a surplus target, so a short day shows up while you can still fix it. A photo is a very good estimate, not a food scale, and you can correct any item after the scan.